How Accurate Is the Snow Day Calculator?

What the score is actually predicting

The calculator predicts weather conditions that typically lead to closures — heavy snow, extreme cold, dangerous wind. It does not predict your superintendent's decision. Districts also weigh road-crew readiness, bus safety, building heat, and even the day of the week.

Where it is strongest

• Clear-cut storms: 15+ cm overnight with high wind → scores 85–95%, and closures are genuinely very likely.
• Clear non-events: no snow and mild temps → scores under 10%, and school almost always runs normally.
• Timing: snow arriving 4–7 AM is the highest-signal window — the model weights it explicitly.

Where it is weakest

• Borderline storms (3–6 cm): the hardest calls in real life too — districts split roughly half the time. Expect scores of 40–60% here, which correctly means “coin flip.”
• Fast-changing forecasts: a storm track shifting 50 miles overnight can flip the outcome. Forecasts are most reliable 12–24 hours out.
• Extreme-cold closures: thresholds vary hugely by region (−25°C closes schools in Minnesota; −10°C can do it in Texas).
• District quirks: some districts almost never close; others close early. The model cannot know local policy.

How to use it wisely

• Check the evening before AND early morning — forecasts sharpen overnight.
• Treat 40–65% as “prepare for either outcome,” not as a prediction of closure.
• Always confirm with your district's official announcements, hotline, or local news.

Our commitment

We publish the full formula so anyone can audit it, and we will never inflate scores to look “bolder.” A calculator that admits uncertainty is more useful than one that pretends at certainty.