Snow Day Predictor
Prediction is part meteorology, part local knowledge. Here is how it really works — then try it live for your ZIP code.
The two halves of a prediction
Half one is the atmosphere: how much snow will fall, when, at what temperature, with what wind. Modern hourly forecast models are quite good at this 12–36 hours out — which is exactly the window that matters for school decisions.
Half two is the ground: plowed roads, bus routes on hills, wind chill at the bus stop, whether the storm hits at 2 AM or 2 PM. No weather model knows your district's road crews. A good predictor is honest about this split — ours shows you the weather half as a transparent score and tells you plainly that the district decides the rest.
The district decision timeline
- Evening before (8–10 PM): superintendents watch the overnight forecast; some districts announce early for big storms.
- 4–5 AM: the classic decision window — officials drive the roads and check actual accumulation.
- 5–6 AM: announcements go out via district alerts, local news, and robocalls.
This timeline is why timing matters so much in our model: snow falling between 4–7 AM local time gets a +10% adjustment, because it lands exactly when buses roll.
Predictor vs. calculator — what's the difference?
Honestly? On this site they share the same engine. The Snow Day Calculator is the quick tool — enter a ZIP, get a score. This predictor page is the explanation — why the score means what it means, and how districts turn forecasts into decisions. Same math, deeper context. Our formula page documents every step.